Central Bank

When less demand in both consumption and investment is expected, the anticipated revenue of enterprises are reduced increasing the risk of non-payment of bank loans. That is why the Central Bank requires them to constitute provisions against the risk increased, weakening the balance sheet of the banks, forcing them again to restrict credit. When the interbank market recover normalcy, appears the risk of inflation, since for a long time the central banks have been injecting liquidity in the system to finance expansionary fiscal policy carried out by Governments and borrowing them / us. Regulators allowed banks that securitized assets are exempt of capital requirements minimum (Reserve Fund) producing an increase in the volume of banking business without cost.

You can not forget that the consumption of families is the key variable to detect the beginning of recovery. Interest rates as a monetary policy tool, a reduction of these does increase the level of activity in the short term and inflation; by count, an increase in interest rates can be used to reduce the level of activity and fight inflation. The maintenance of very low interest rates encourages indebtedness of families, up to limits that currently are unsustainable, due to the belief that the bonanza couldn’t end never. Household debt has reduced consumption by the uncertainty caused by the financial crisis, moving the problem to the rest of the economic agents, giving rise to a recessive phase of the economic cycle; The recovery of the economy is based on the recomposition of the savings of families. Everyone trusts the first generator of global aggregate demand (imports more global production), United States.

In recent years, the global economy has worked with two engines that have kept it afloat: United States, as an engine of consumption and China as a production engine. The first engine, stops momentarily and the second begins to stall, since China sells 50% of its exports to the United States, Japan and Europe and are economies are stopping. Countries that have been most strongly hit by the crisis, have been those who had large deficit fiscal and balance of payments, worsening the bank credibility, appearing the risk of inflation, weakening of the labour market, lower receipt of investment affect the liquidity of the financial system, decrease in international reserves, restriction of access to credit, refinancing of debt.

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